Box Office Prediction: James Cameron’s Avatar Will Exceed Expectations (Again) and Pull $53M This Weekend

It’s Friday morning and that means it’s time for a fearless  Box Office Prediction for James Cameron’s Avatar on this, its fourth weekend in release.  Here’s what the experts are predicting:

DISCUSSION:  First of all, the predictions in the mid forties are all to some degree premised on the expectation that this weekend, with the holidays finally over, Avatar will finally take the 40% drop that these same predictors were looking for each of the last two weekends.  In each case Avatar surprised them, so I’m wondering just a bit why they are so timid at this point given the data that’s available.  Avatar has held strong during the week; it is tracking much more like Titanic than ‘normal’ pictures, and Titanic only dropped 16% on it’s fourth weekend, pulling in $28M.  Avatar did 68.3m last weekend and a 16% drop would mean $57.4m.  I’m projecting $53m, which is a 23% drop.  I won’t be surprised if it comes in closer to 55m,and I will be surprised if it doesn’t crack $50m.

This is also the weekend where, from now on, each weekend will definitely be Avatar vs Titanic because Titanic owns the record for highest 4th, 5th, 6th — all the way out to 12th Weekend (which is as far as the Box Office Mojo “All Time Highest” weekend list goes).  So — Avatar owns the all-time highest 3rd weekend and as long as it gets past $28m it beats Titanic on an unadjusted basis.  On an ‘adjusted for inflation’ basis, it needs to pull $45m to achieve the 2010 equivalent of Titanic’s 1998 total of $28m.

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~ by Michael Sellers on January 8, 2010.

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